Before You Cheer The IPO Window, Watch Where The Money Goes
The reopening of the IPO market in 2026 is a concentration event, not a broad recovery, argues Marc Schroder of venture firm MGV. A small set of giant listings led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic dominates the window. The larger effect for most startups is stronger acquisition activity, because newly public AI giants would become some of the best-capitalized buyers on the planet, and M&A, not IPOs, is the exit path for most founders and investors.
Key Takeaways
- A public SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic would become some of the best-capitalized acquirers on the planet, writes MGV's Marc Schröder, who explains that the bigger impact for startups is likely to be stronger M&A activity, with acquisitions rather than IPOs being the most important exit path for many founders and investors.
Marc Schröder Tomorrow, SpaceX is set to list on the Nasdaq at a fixed $135 a share , selling 555.6 million shares for a $75 billion raise at a $1.77 trillion valuation - the largest public offering in history .
- Bloomberg reported last week that with brokerage cash balances low, retail investors may have to sell existing holdings to fund their SpaceX orders, with Tesla and Bitcoin the most likely sources, and SpaceX is reserving as much as 30% of the deal, roughly $22.5 billion, for that same risk-on crowd.
Crypto's own IPO pipeline stalled this year as capital rotated toward AI.
- A public SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic become some of the best-capitalized acquirers on the planet, with liquid stock to spend.
OpenAI has already closed roughly half a dozen acquisitions this year , nearly matching its full 2025 total, and AI dealmaking across the market rose about 90% year over year in the first quarter.
- For investors, the discipline is to not mistake a concentration event for a market that has reopened.
The liquidity - and the distributions LPs have spent four years waiting on - will land with a narrow set of names.
- Under Schröder's stewardship, MGV has swiftly ascended to a top-quartile firm, surpassing the performance of 95% of venture funds.
Stats & Key Facts
- #Marc Schröder Tomorrow, SpaceX is set to list on the Nasdaq at a fixed $135 a share , selling 555.6 million shares for a $75 billion raise at a $1.77 trillion valuation - the largest public offering in history .
- #Meanwhile, Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation, and OpenAI followed on June 8, eyeing a fall listing .
- #SpaceX's raise alone is slated to be more than the $47.4 billion the entire U.S. IPO market raised in 2025 .
- #Bloomberg reported last week that with brokerage cash balances low, retail investors may have to sell existing holdings to fund their SpaceX orders, with Tesla and Bitcoin the most likely sources, and SpaceX is reserving as much as 30% of the deal, roughly $22.5 billion, for that same risk-on crowd.
A public SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic would become some of the best-capitalized acquirers on the planet, writes MGV's Marc Schröder, who explains that the bigger impact for startups is likely to be stronger M&A activity, with acquisitions rather than IPOs being the most important exit path for many founders and investors. Marc Schröder Tomorrow, SpaceX is set to list on the Nasdaq at a fixed $135 a share , selling 555.6 million shares for a $75 billion raise at a $1.77 trillion valuation - the largest public offering in history . Meanwhile, Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation, and OpenAI followed on June 8, eyeing a fall listing .
After four years of a venture liquidity drought, the read across the industry is simple: the IPO window is finally open again. I would be careful with that read. Look at where the money is coming from.
SpaceX's raise alone is slated to be more than the $47.4 billion the entire U.S. IPO market raised in 2025 . Bloomberg reported last week that with brokerage cash balances low, retail investors may have to sell existing holdings to fund their SpaceX orders, with Tesla and Bitcoin the most likely sources, and SpaceX is reserving as much as 30% of the deal, roughly $22.5 billion, for that same risk-on crowd. Crypto's own IPO pipeline stalled this year as capital rotated toward AI.
For more details please read the original article at Crunchbase News.
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