The three hard-tech moonshots fueling SpaceX's unbelievable IPO

Overview

SpaceX priced the largest IPO on record at $135 per share, valuing the rocket maker near $1.77 trillion and raising about $75 billion through the sale of roughly 555.6 million shares. Most of that price rests not on today's rocket and Starlink business but on three unproven hard-tech bets: fully reusable Starship rockets, mass-produced AI satellites, and a chip foundry. Independent analysts value the company far lower, with Morningstar at $825 billion, treating the gap as a wager on space-based data centers.

Key Takeaways

SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 per share, raising about $75 billion in the biggest initial public offering ever recorded and listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.
Independent valuations sit well below the offering price: Morningstar pegs fair value near $825 billion ($63 per share) and NYU's Aswath Damodaran estimates $1.2 trillion.
Three high-risk projects justify the premium: fully reusable Starship, AI satellites built at gigawatt scale, and a chip foundry called Terafab.
SpaceX has signed compute contracts reported at $1.25 billion per month with Anthropic and $920 million per month with Google, both running on the Colossus data center xAI built before merging into SpaceX.
The offering drew demand approaching four times the shares available, with some institutional investors placing orders as large as $10 billion blocks.
On its first trading day the stock opened at $135 and climbed about 25 percent to roughly $168.75, lifting the market value toward $2.21 trillion.

Stats & Key Facts

#$135 per share IPO price, setting a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation
#$75 billion raised, the largest IPO on record
#555.6 million shares sold to public investors
#$825 billion Morningstar fair value, about $63 per share, far below the offering
#$1.2 trillion valuation from NYU professor Aswath Damodaran
#$22.7 trillion enterprise AI market and $2.4 trillion AI infrastructure market cited in the S-1 filing
#About 25 percent first-day gain, pushing market value near $2.21 trillion

Record $75 Billion IPO Priced at $135 a Share on Nasdaq

The headline numbers make this the biggest public offering in history.

›Share price set at $135, valuing SpaceX near $1.77 trillion
›About 555.6 million shares sold to raise roughly $75 billion
›Listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX
›Demand approached four times the shares available, with some institutional orders as large as $10 billion blocks

Why Independent Analysts Value SpaceX Far Below the Offering Price

Outside estimates land hundreds of billions below the IPO sticker.

Morningstar puts fair value near $825 billion, or about $63 per share, less than half the $135 offering price. NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran estimates roughly $1.2 trillion, still below the bankers' figure.

Morningstar frames the gap between its $63 estimate and the $135 price as a call option on the company's ability to deliver orbital data centers. In plain terms, buyers are paying mostly for a future that has not been built yet, not for the rocket-launch and Starlink business operating today.

Bet One: Fully Reusable Starship and an Open FAA Investigation

The first moonshot is a rocket designed to fly again and again with little refurbishment.

A fully and rapidly reusable Starship would slash the cost of reaching orbit, which underpins every other plan. Recent test flights showed progress but did not suggest rapid reuse is close, and early operational flights might reuse only the booster stage, which keeps costs higher.

An FAA mishap investigation is ongoing after a booster failed to make a controlled reentry. For context, NASA holds a $4 billion Starship contract and is targeting a test mission in late 2027, so the timeline for routine reuse stretches years out.

Bet Two: Building AI Satellites at One Gigawatt of Power a Year

The second project turns Starlink's factory into a builder of orbiting compute.

›Target: an annualized rate near one gigawatt of satellite capacity per year by the end of next year
›At up to 150 kilowatts per satellite, that works out to roughly 6,666 satellites a year, or about 556 per month
›Current Starlink build rate is near 70 satellites per week
›Reaching the target means roughly doubling the present production pace

Bet Three: The Terafab Chip Foundry Aiming for a Terawatt of Compute

The third bet pushes SpaceX into one of the hardest industries on Earth.

SpaceX plans a chip foundry named Terafab, with a long-term goal of producing a terawatt of annual compute to feed the later stages of its space data center buildout. Owning the chip supply would let it scale orbital computing without relying on outside fabs.

The catch is that chip fabs rank among the most demanding industrial projects in the modern economy. They routinely cost billions of dollars and take as long as a decade to build, which makes this the least proven of the three bets.

The AI Demand Behind the Numbers: Anthropic and Google Contracts

Existing deals show why investors take the data center story seriously.

›S-1 filing cites a $22.7 trillion enterprise AI market and a $2.4 trillion AI infrastructure market
›Compute contract reported at $1.25 billion per month with Anthropic
›Compute contract reported at $920 million per month with Google
›Both contracts draw on the Colossus data center that xAI built before merging into SpaceX

What the First Trading Day Signaled About Investor Appetite

The market's opening reaction tested whether the premium would hold.

The stock opened at its $135 price and rose about 25 percent, reaching roughly $168.75 and lifting SpaceX's market value toward $2.21 trillion. That early pop suggests public investors, like the oversubscribed institutional buyers before them, were willing to pay for the long-term vision.

Strong demand also reshaped who got shares. SpaceX initially aimed for a retail allocation near 30 percent, well above the 5 to 10 percent typical for new listings, but heavy institutional interest trimmed the final retail share toward the low 20 percent range.

Frequently Asked Questions

What valuation did SpaceX get in its IPO?

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, which values the company near $1.77 trillion. It raised about $75 billion by selling roughly 555.6 million shares, the largest IPO on record.

Why do analysts say SpaceX is overvalued?

Independent estimates fall well below the offering price. Morningstar pegs fair value near $825 billion (about $63 per share) and NYU's Aswath Damodaran estimates $1.2 trillion, meaning much of the IPO price rests on future projects rather than today's business.

What are the three hard-tech bets behind the price?

They are a fully reusable Starship rocket, mass production of AI satellites at roughly one gigawatt of capacity per year, and a chip foundry named Terafab aiming for a terawatt of annual compute. All three are unproven at the required scale.

What is the connection between SpaceX, xAI, and AI companies?

xAI merged into SpaceX, bringing the Colossus data center with it. SpaceX has signed compute contracts reported at $1.25 billion per month with Anthropic and $920 million per month with Google, both running on that data center.

How did SpaceX stock perform on its first trading day?

The stock opened at its $135 IPO price and climbed about 25 percent to roughly $168.75, pushing the company's market value toward $2.21 trillion on its Nasdaq debut under the ticker SPCX.

SpaceX's record IPO turns much of its value into a wager on space-based data centers rather than rockets, with reusable Starship, AI satellites, and the Terafab foundry as the bets that have to pay off. Whether the gap between its $135 price and the lower analyst estimates closes depends on projects that remain years from proven.